A toxic mix of soft economic data, aggressive tariffs, and Fed limbo is testing market resilience. As August kicks off, Wall Street may be headed for a rocky road.
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Wall Street tumbles as weak jobs data and new tariffs fuel recession fears |
Stock market tumbles on job losses and tariff shock
US markets opened sharply lower in August after a disappointing July jobs report and a sweeping tariff hike by President Donald Trump.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 485 points (-1.1%), while the S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq fell 1.5%. Bank stocks and industrial stocks led the sell-off, with JPMorgan Chase falling 4% and GE Aerospace and Caterpillar each dropping 3%.
Jobs report misses target
Non-farm payrolls grew by only 73,000 in July, well below forecasts of 100,000. Even more worrying is that the employment growth figures for May and June were cut sharply, with June seeing just 14,000 jobs (down from 147,000).
"Job creation is slowing. Add to that the tariffs, and we could soon see a drop in wages," said Jeffrey Schulze of ClearBridge Investments.
The Fed may be forced to cut interest rates
The weak employment report has changed market expectations: 66% of traders now expect a rate cut in September, according to CME FedWatch, compared to 38% before the report.
However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently said the central bank needs time to assess the inflationary impact of Trump's new tariffs.
Trump targets Canada and Switzerland for tariff hikes
In a sweeping executive order, Trump raised tariffs on dozens of countries:
- Canada: Tariffs on imports rose from 25% to 35%, citing Canada's "failure to curb fentanyl trafficking" as the reason.
- Swiss goods: Face a 39% tariff starting August 7 — a major blow to luxury watchmakers like UHR and WOSG.
- Asian nations: South Korea (19%), Japan (15%), and Southeast Asia will also face revised tariffs.
Goods that avoid tariffs through transshipment will now face an additional 40% duty.
"The executive order destroys the post-World War II trade rulebook," said former USTR official Wendy Cutler.
Tech earnings: Amazon earnings fall, Apple leads
Tech sees mixed response:
- Amazon fell more than 7% on weak operating income guidance.
- Apple rose 2% after coming in above Wall Street estimates.
Despite strong earnings from Meta and Microsoft, investor confidence still remains weak, especially when indexes are retreating from record highs set earlier this week.
Asia-Pacific markets react to tariffs
Asian markets also faltered:
- Hong Kong Hang Seng: -1.07%
- China CSI 300: -0.51%
- Japan Nikkei 225: -0.66%
- South Korea Kospi: -3.88%
- India Nifty 50: -0.48% (As of 2:02 PM IST)
IPO boom continues despite market turmoil
According to Renaissance Capital, 123 IPOs are priced in 2025, up 48% from last year. Notable gainers include:
- Circle Internet: +492% since June IPO
- Figma: +250% since Thursday's debut
However, the bulk of IPO activity is coming from foreign-based and small-cap companies.
Investor sentiment turns cautious
According to the American Association of Individual Investors:
- 45.6% say stocks are overvalued
- 37.8% believe valuations are mixed
- Only 1.5% believe stocks are undervalued
Dalio's full exit and the Nasdaq 100's major warning: What's next for markets
With recession fears taking center stage again and Fed policy uncertainty growing, market strategists are warning of more volatility ahead. BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky sees a potential retest of February's highs on the Nasdaq 100.
"We believe the next significant move will be to the downside," Krinsky said in a note.
Meanwhile, Ray Dalio completed his full exit from Bridgewater Associates , stepping down from the board but remaining a strategic investor and adviser.
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