Signs of Moderating Demand for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone 17, Says JPMorgan

The initial strong demand for Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) latest iPhone 17 series is now showing signs of slowing down. In a recent report, JPMorgan Chase's lead analyst Samik Chatterjee noted that delivery lead times for the iPhone 17 (the time from order to delivery) are decreasing, indicating a balance between demand and supply.

According to the report, the average delivery time for the iPhone 17 series is now approximately three days, matching the level of the iPhone 16 series at the same time last year. In recent weeks, lead times have fallen by an average of three days, compared to no change for the iPhone 16 last year. Notably, lead times for the base model (the primary driver of this cycle) have dropped by six days and are now in the single-digit range. The iPhone 17 Air and Pro variants have seen a one-day reduction each.

Chatterjee observed that Apple typically achieves a demand-supply balance by the end of the year, and the iPhone 17 series is following this pattern. Lead times were extended in the initial quarter after launch due to higher year-over-year demand, but supply is now catching up.

Although this softening in demand is part of a normal seasonal pattern, JPMorgan believes the strong sell-through of the iPhone 17 series will support higher unit sales and revenue throughout the product cycle. This is expected to result in limited supply constraints for Apple in its fiscal second quarter of 2026.

Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

• Samik Chatterjee (JPMorgan): Buy rating, price target $305 (approximately 12% upside from current levels).
• Wall Street Consensus (from 32 analysts): Moderate Buy (20 Buy, 10 Hold, 2 Sell).
• Average price target: $299.49 (approximately 10% upside potential).

This development is positive for Apple, as the normal moderation following strong initial demand keeps the company's sales expectations intact. The iPhone 17 series, which includes the base model, Air, and Pro variants, performed well after launch but is now stabilizing as the holiday season winds down.