Trump and EU Trade Deal: What’s Happening in 2025

The US and EU are at a critical juncture in their trade relationship, with President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen leading high-level negotiations. Their latest meeting at Trump's Turnberry golf resort in Scotland, scheduled for July 27, 2025, has captured global attention, and the August 1 deadline could reshape the US-EU economic relationship. Here's a look at the latest developments in the Trump-EU trade talks, what's at stake, and what could happen next.

Trump and von der Leyen discuss US-EU trade deal at Turnberry, aiming to avert 30% tariffs by August 1

Trump-von der Leyen Meeting: A Push for Progress

Today, von der Leyen and Trump held talks on a potential US-EU trade deal. The talks come after months of tense negotiations in which Trump threatened to impose 30% tariffs on EU products if no deal was reached by August 1. The Trump-von der Leyen meeting is seen as a turning point as the two leaders seek to hammer out a framework to avoid a transatlantic trade war. Trump described the chances of an agreement as "50-50", citing unresolved issues, but expressed respect for von der Leyen's leadership.

US-EU Commerce Talks: What’s on the Table

US-EU trade talks are focused on a proposed 15% baseline tariff on EU products, lower than the threatened 30% but higher than the current 10% rate set in April 2025. This is similar to recent US agreements with Japan, and includes reducing car tariffs from 25% to 15%. However, EU-US trade partnership talks are complicated by issues such as a 50% tariff on steel and aluminium, which the EU wants resolved to protect industries such as Germany's automotive sector. The EU is pushing for a “political” agreement to extend the talks beyond the deadline, as it did with the UK in May 2025.

Donald Trump’s Trade Policies: A Hardline Approach

Trump’s trade policies have taken centre stage, and his strategy of using tariff threats to gain concessions defines Trump’s international trade agenda. The US had a $235.6 billion merchandise trade deficit with the EU in 2024, and Trump is focused on reducing the gap. His one-on-one talks with leaders such as Italy’s Giorgia Meloni reflect his preference for direct negotiations, although the EU negotiates as a bloc, with von der Leyen and Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič leading EU trade negotiations. Trump’s history of last-minute reversals, such as rejecting a 10% tariff deal in June 2025, has the EU worried.

EU-US Economic Policies: Balancing Cooperation and Competition

US-EU economic policies are deeply intertwined, with goods trade expected to be worth nearly $1 trillion in 2024. The EU exports medicines, machinery and vehicles, while the US sends fuel, aircraft and other items. A rift in the US-EU trade relationship could disrupt integrated supply chains, especially in industries such as automotive and tech. The EU is set to impose $109 billion in retaliatory tariffs on US goods including car parts and bourbon if talks fail, signalling the high stakes of the Trump-EU economic talks.

Europe-US Trade Deal: Challenges and Opportunities

Securing a Europe-US trade deal is no small feat. The EU wants stability for its exporters, while Trump is demanding concessions to boost US manufacturing. Global trade talks are also affected by Trump's wider trade war, which has seen tariffs imposed on 60 countries forcing the EU to seek partnerships such as the Asia-Pacific CPTPP bloc. Posts on X highlight market volatility, with analysts suggesting a 15% tariff agreement could avert a crisis, but hurt EU exporters more than UK terms.

Trade Agreement EU-US: What’s Next

The EU-US trade deal depends on today's von der Leyen-Trump talks. A framework agreement could move the talks forward, stabilizing US trade with Europe. If no deal is reached, the EU is prepared to retaliate, which could escalate tensions. The outcome will shape Trump-EU relations and affect international trade agreements globally.