The Dangerous Gamble: How Russia's Actions Are Unraveling Global Stability,Why U.S.-Russia Nuclear Treaties Are Falling Apart

Russia’s Exit from Nuclear Treaties

Russia has significantly altered the nuclear arms control landscape by withdrawing from or suspending participation in key agreements with the United States, undermining decades of stability.

• New START Treaty Suspension: In February 2023, President Vladimir Putin suspended Russia’s participation in the New START Treaty, the last major nuclear arms agreement limiting deployed strategic warheads to 1,550 and delivery systems to 700. Although Russia pledged to adhere to these limits until the treaty’s expiration in February 2026, the suspension ended on-site inspections and data exchanges, increasing risks of miscalculation. Russian officials have expressed skepticism about renewal, citing U.S. support for Ukraine as a barrier.

• Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty Exit: On August 4, 2025, Russia declared it no longer considers itself bound by the 1987 INF Treaty, which banned ground-launched missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers. This follows the U.S. withdrawal in 2019 over alleged Russian violations. Russia’s Foreign Ministry pointed to U.S. missile deployments in Europe and Asia as justification for resuming development of such missiles, with former President Dmitry Medvedev warning of NATO’s role in escalating tensions.

• Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT): In November 2023, Russia revoked its ratification of the CTBT, aligning its stance with the U.S., which has not ratified the treaty. This symbolic move has raised concerns about potential nuclear testing, further weakening global non-proliferation efforts.

Russia’s Submarine Threat and Nuclear Posturing

Russia’s military activities, including submarine deployments and nuclear rhetoric, have heightened global concerns about escalation.

• Submarine Deployments: On August 1, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the repositioning of two nuclear submarines in response to provocative statements from Dmitry Medvedev, who referenced Russia’s “Dead Hand” nuclear retaliation system. Analysts noted that U.S. Ohio-class submarines, equipped with Trident II missiles, are already globally deployed, suggesting the announcement was more symbolic than operational. Russia’s Foreign Ministry urged restraint in nuclear rhetoric.

• Tactical Nuclear Exercises: In May 2024, Russia conducted tactical nuclear drills in its Southern Military District, involving navy, air force, and missile forces. These exercises, part of the annual Grom series, simulated responses to enemy nuclear strikes, signaling readiness to use tactical nuclear weapons. Russia’s deployment of such weapons to Belarus in March 2023 has further escalated regional tensions.

• Strategic Bombers and Naval Drills: In July 2025, Russia conducted large-scale naval exercises across the Arctic, Pacific, Baltic, and Caspian regions, involving 150 warships, 120 aircraft, and over 15,000 personnel. These coincided with U.S. nuclear bomb deployments to the UK, prompting Russian warnings of “military-technical” countermeasures.

U.S. Weapon Deployments and Russia’s Strategic Responses

U.S. military actions have fueled Russia’s perception of a growing threat, prompting countermeasures.

• U.S. Missile Deployments: Russia has criticized U.S. deployments of intermediate-range missiles in Denmark, the Philippines, and Australia, viewing them as violations of the INF Treaty’s spirit. These actions, alongside the U.S. withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002 and plans for the $175-billion Golden Dome missile defense system, have prompted Russia to develop its own missile systems.

• U.S. Nuclear Modernization: The U.S. is advancing its nuclear arsenal, including multi-warhead Sentinel ICBMs, Long-Range Standoff Weapons, B-21 bombers, and Columbia-class submarines. These efforts aim to counter Russia and China but risk provoking Russian escalation.

• Russia’s Defense Strategy: In September 2024, Russia updated its nuclear doctrine to include broader scenarios for nuclear use, such as against non-nuclear states acting as proxies in conflicts threatening Russia’s existence. Putin’s warnings of a “massive nuclear strike” reflect a more assertive deterrence posture.

Impact of Nuclear Treaties and Geopolitical Tensions

The collapse of arms control agreements has far-reaching consequences for global security.

• Erosion of Arms Control: With New START set to expire in February 2026, the absence of inspections and data exchanges increases mistrust. Experts warn Russia could expand its warhead deployments by up to 60% without treaty constraints, risking an arms race.

• Geopolitical Tensions: U.S.-Russia relations are at a historic low, driven by the Ukraine conflict, U.S. sanctions, and mutual accusations of hybrid warfare. Trump’s ultimatums for a Ukraine ceasefire, including threats of tariffs or escalated military aid, have prompted Russian nuclear warnings.

• Global Security Risks: The combination of Russia’s nuclear threats, U.S. military buildup, and the Ukraine conflict raises the risk of miscalculation. Regional conflicts could escalate to nuclear use, particularly if Russia employs tactical weapons.

Nuclear Disarmament and Diplomacy

Reviving arms control faces significant challenges:

• Challenges to New Agreements: Russia demands that future treaties include other nuclear powers like China, France, and the UK, a stance echoed by Trump. China, however, views arms control as a weakness and is unlikely to participate until achieving nuclear parity by the mid-2030s.

• International Efforts: The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) remains critical but is weakened by the lack of disarmament progress. Russia’s veto of a UN resolution on nuclear weapons in space in April 2024 highlights its resistance to multilateral constraints.

• Diplomatic Pathways: Experts advocate for renewed U.S.-Russia dialogue to reduce nuclear risks, potentially involving Global South nations to pressure Russia. However, political will remains limited amid ongoing tensions.

Dread of a New Cold War

The U.S.-Russia nuclear relationship is increasingly precarious, with the collapse of treaties like the INF and the looming end of New START signaling a potential arms race. Russia’s submarine threats, nuclear drills, and doctrinal shifts, alongside U.S. missile deployments and modernization, elevate global security risks. Diplomacy is critical to prevent miscalculations, but the current climate of distrust makes progress challenging.