Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries Could Exceed Estimates Amid $7,500 EV Credit Surge — Eyes on Affordable EV Launch in Q4

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) may be on track to post stronger-than-expected vehicle deliveries for the third quarter of 2025, according to tracking data and analyst commentary. Wall Street consensus currently stands at 431,000 units, but deliveries could surpass this estimate by 5% or more, driven by the expiring U.S. $7,500 upfront EV credit.

Q3 Outlook: Record U.S. Deliveries Expected

Industry observers, including veteran investor Gary Black, note that Tesla’s U.S. deliveries are set to hit a record high, up 10–15% year-over-year in Q3. The credit expiration has incentivized consumers to accelerate purchases, particularly in the Model Y and Model 3 segments.

Q4 Uncertainty: Affordable EV or Price-Cut Repeat?

The bigger debate surrounds Tesla’s fourth-quarter outlook. The company is preparing to launch a new, more affordable EV priced around $35,000, which could:

• Represent a new form factor that expands Tesla’s total addressable market (TAM) into a lower-priced segment.
• Or turn out to be a lower-cost Model Y with a smaller battery, which might echo the 2023–2024 strategy of price cuts and cost reductions that failed to deliver meaningful volume growth.

Strategic Priorities: Robotaxi and Optimus vs. Core EV Business

Tesla’s long-term narrative continues to center on Robotaxi services and the Optimus humanoid robot project. However, EV sales remain critical, still generating around 80% of Tesla’s profits. This means the performance of its core vehicle business remains a key factor in Tesla’s valuation.

FY 2025 Forecast: Volume Decline Still Expected

Despite strong near-term momentum, Tesla’s full-year 2025 delivery volumes are projected to decline by about -10% YoY to 1.61 million units, broadly in line with Wall Street expectations. Analysts suggest that without a significant expansion in TAM or stronger global adoption, growth could remain under pressure.

here is a graph showing the potential for Tesla's Q3 2025 deliveries to exceed Wall Street estimates.

The graph compares the current consensus estimate of 431,000 units with a potential delivery number that is 5% higher, reaching 452,550 units.

A Look at Tesla's Q3 Forecast

• Q3 deliveries could beat Wall Street estimates by +5% or more.
• U.S. deliveries likely to set a record, rising 10–15% YoY.
• New $35K EV in Q4 could either expand market share or repeat past pricing strategies.
• Robotaxi and Optimus projects dominate the future narrative, but EVs still drive 80% of profits.
• FY 2025 volumes expected to fall -10% YoY to 1.61M units.

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